Coronavirus and Climate Change
Contributor: Aneesh Patnaik
Introduction
During a time of such despair and uncertainty, many of us are solely concerned with how COVID-19, also known as the Coronavirus, will affect us individually or our families. What not many people are aware of is the fact that the Coronavirus will have some major impacts on the planet, specifically on climate change.
Since the Coronavirus originated in China, which has since gained significant control over the spread of the virus, most of the effects on emissions and climate change can be seen here.
Effects in China
China, being one of the largest producers of carbon (among other greenhouse gases) emissions, has always taken a slight drop in coal consumption around Chinese New Year, which usually takes place in January or February each year. This dip is usually due to businesses and factories closing down for the New Year holiday. Shortly after this period of lowered coal consumption, businesses open back up and coal use rebounds.
This year, however, as a direct result of the Coronavirus outbreak, coal consumption in China did not bounce back. With over 80,000 cases of the virus, factories, refineries, and many other businesses were closed down resulting in about 25% lower carbon dioxide emissions during the same period last year. Based on the calculations of Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, the roughly three-week emission decline that China experienced was approximately equivalent to the total amount of carbon dioxide the entire state of New York emits in a year, which is about 150 million metric tons.
Source: New York Times
One of the major pollutants that these factories emit is Nitrogen dioxide (NO2). NO2 is primarily produced by the combustion of fossil fuels. The NO2 levels in a city are usually linked to not only factory activity, but also vehicle activity, hence the amount of NO2 in the air is a good indicator for economic activity. Quite obviously, with the decreased coal use comes decreased NO2 levels, which is exactly what happened in China during the month of February.
Source: World Economic Forum
World Wide Drops in Emissions
After China, the two most infected countries are Italy and the United States. Similar to China, emissions and productivity in both of these countries have resulted in major decreases in emissions and overall activity, especially since both countries have been on lockdown for a few weeks.
Italy has been affected extremely harshly by the virus as its number of active cases and death toll surpassed those of China. The country went into lockdown, shutting down everything from schools to churches. Resulting from this lockdown, Italy’s economic activity had dropped significantly, and with this, so has Italy’s NO2 levels.
Source: World Economic Forum
The United States has seen similar drops in NO2 levels due to the quarantines that multiple states have imposed, though these drops have been primarily noticed in metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York. Los Angeles is an extremely car-dependent city as it boasts some of the highest amounts of smog in the country. The usual rush-hour congestion of the morning (8 a.m.) and evening (5 p.m.) have both dropped significantly. Based on data from INRIX, a traffic data and phone navigation system analytics company, traffic has been moving more than 50% faster during both of these times. The same pattern that was exhibited in Italy and China was seen here in Los Angeles.
Source: Sentinel-5P satellite data processed by Descartes Labs
Concerns About the Future
While many are happy that emissions levels are lowered due to the lack of travel and closing of factories, concerns about rising consumer energy levels are increasing. Since the general population in many areas of the United States are currently stuck at home, consumer power usage has certainly increased, and will likely continue to do so until the country manages to control the spread of the virus. It may seem like the short term climate benefits we are experiencing may continue, but it is unknown how long these will last.
In addition to the increase of home energy usage, waste has also been increasing. Specifically, medical waste has already increased immensely. In China, single use items used in hospitals, like gloves and face masks, have had major increases in usage and demand as the number of cases rose. Wuhan, for example, had its volume of medical waste quadruple to 200 tons a day by the end of February. Now, the same pattern is occurring in the United States and Italy, as the number of cases in both of these countries has not peaked as of yet, so the increase in medical waste will definitely continue.
The COVID-19 Epidemic of 2020 has led to lowered emissions levels in the past 2 months because of lockdowns and quarantines all around the world. However, these lockdowns have had major economic implications as the world’s economic system is currently going through a recession. As a result, many companies and even governments around the world have considered revising their green targets. There are yet to be any major changes, but we shall have to wait and see until this pandemic is over. Currently, the next major climate change conference, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, is set to take place in November of 2020, so any major changes to countries around the world’s climate change or emissions goals will likely be made known then.